Unpredictability, Cause-and-Effect, and the Long Term Outcome of Complex Scenarios

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Complex Scenarios and circumstances, like games, warfare, and multifaceted procedures and activities always have high degrees of unpredictability. The level of unpredictability and lack of control on the outcome increases almost exponentially the further from the immediate present moment your attempts to predict and control the scenario or circumstance gets. Long term predictions and probability analyses are always very difficult to present and implement with high degrees of success and accuracy because the cause-and-effect determinism of the procession of events only has high degrees of accuracy in the short term and immediate. This cause-and-effect determinism also only has high degrees of successful predictability in regards to the individual parts of a system or scenario.
        For example, imagine a soldier in a combat situation is out on a mission with his unit with a set of objectives to complete and a fixed, rather small number of soldiers in his unit and the unit comes under attack. That individual soldier when faced with a set amount of options and a fixed time constraint to make decisions can only have his decisions determined and predicted within the immediate short term future, and even then, human behavior and cause-and-effect relationships with scenarios and a particular environment leave even the highly predictable immediate future of a situation without an absolute certainty of the outcome of the circumstances, but human choices can still be predicted with a relatively high degree of accuracy in the immediate and short term procession of an event. However, the shear number of variables and components of a rapidly unfolding situation like an ambush or combat scenario often prevents players in the midst of the situation from having the vantage point and foresight necessary to accurately account for all the possible outcomes and consequences of all the other players in the scenario and all the other forces at work as this very complex scenario unfolds. Even the overseers with the best birds-eye view of the whole battlefield still don't have flawless predictability skill-sets or anticipatory capabilities that have the necessary low degree of margin of error to completely account for all the unintended consequences and variables in complex rapidly evolving scenarios. That being said, there are some people and some algorithms that do have a very advanced capability of prediction and adaptation to change in complex real-time rapidly unfolding scenarios, but no person or algorithm is perfect because complexity and the decay of the game paradigm and status quo are way too advanced and too rapidly evolving  for any one person or rigid algorithm to manage, control, or adapt to completely without error.
         

  There are always unintended consequences to decisions made rapidly or under pressure, and cause and effect relationships always get more muddled and confusing the further they progress out of the short term and immediate and into the long term future. Because determinism is only really present in the immediate future of the procession of an event, the further into the future you try to anticipate the outcomes of a scenario, the more variables come into play that you may not have completely accounted for and cause-and-effect relationships between the parts of a system and circumstance start interacting with each other in much more mathematically and physically complex ways that have a great degree of room for inaccuracies in the attempts to predict them. Individual parts of a system have predictable determinism in the short term often because the outcome of the motion and procedures of these parts are determined by unbreakable physical laws, like gravity or electromagnetism. Since these physical laws are unbreakable, predicting short-term cause and effect relationships and outcomes in an individual part of a system is quite easy, but the moment you add the interactions of other systems or parts of the same system to the individual part in question, the more complex the dynamics of those relationships become. Also, the moment you start a new process or cause-and-effect situation within those systems that is coupled with more multifaceted components and variables, it is literally like starting an entirely new timeline of events that is often disconnected from the previous cause-and-effect procedure. This makes long-term determinism of outcomes exceedingly difficult and sometimes almost impossible to predict with a successful degree of accuracy. These factors, as well as the sheer vastness of the amount of individual parts of a system and the amount of systems existing in reality in general makes me have a difficult time believing long term prophesies and predictions can be made with precision and high degrees of accuracy. Even so, I do believe precise prophesies and predictions are very much possible, but only with a mind or conscious system with a level of advancement and complexity sufficient enough to account for the seemingly endless possible combinations of outcomes, consequences, and circumstances of long-term complex scenarios